Sir Keir Starmer is facing a crisis of leadership, with his top advisors departing and his administration appearing increasingly adrift! It's a moment of intense uncertainty in politics, where anything feels possible, and frankly, nothing would be entirely shocking. The recent departures of his chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, and communications chief, Tim Allan, within a mere 24 hours of each other, have left many in the Labour party wondering just how rudderless their leader's administration has become. It's like losing two vital navigators from the ship of state in quick succession!
When you ask around, the blame for the current predicament varies, and so does the level of anger. However, there's a near-universal acknowledgment that Sir Keir Starmer's situation is dire, fraught with immense peril. Those who've spoken with him recently describe a man acutely aware of the gravity of his circumstances. He's reportedly seething with anger over what he perceives as "lies" from Lord Mandelson, and more importantly, he's frustrated with himself for what he now sees as a significant misjudgment in appointing the peer as ambassador to the United States. As one senior figure put it, "He hates the idea that he's let people down and that cuts very deep. He knows he's made a very big mistake."
This brings us to a truly unprecedented juncture for Starmer. For as long as he's pursued or held a leadership position, Morgan McSweeney has been his constant companion. McSweeney was there when Starmer first ran for the Labour leadership six years ago, through the challenging years as Leader of the Opposition – from near-disastrous by-election losses, like the one in Hartlepool that almost made Starmer walk away, to the triumphant landslide general election victory in the summer of 2024. And then, he was by Starmer's side as they entered Downing Street and government.
These two men are quite different: McSweeney, a seasoned political operative deeply immersed in Labour's history for decades; Starmer, a figure who entered Westminster in his fifties, with a more fluid ideological compass. So, what is Starmer like as a leader without McSweeney's steady presence? With Allan's departure too, we are about to find out. This situation starkly underlines the peril the Prime Minister finds himself in, creating an atmosphere of doom, gloom, and foreboding.
But here's where it gets controversial... McSweeney, fairly or unfairly, often bore the brunt of the blame for various missteps that Labour MPs attributed to Downing Street. Now that he's gone, the danger is that the next political "lightning strike" might directly hit the Prime Minister instead. Some Labour MPs are truly devastated by McSweeney's exit. One MP, first elected in 2024, described him as "Brilliant, dynamic, nimble, motivating, he got us here." A more long-standing MP reflected, "This was looking inevitable but you are losing a lot of politics from the building and that is not necessarily a good thing." Others, however, argue that while McSweeney was instrumental in making Labour electable again, he was also present during repeated mistakes within the government. Expect these differing viewpoints to be a significant part of the conversation in the coming days.
And this is the part most people miss... The key questions now revolve around the Prime Minister himself, not his former chief of staff. The language used by his allies and his critics within the party (and some are both) is remarkably similar. The tone, demeanor, and mood among many I've spoken to is an unmistakable sense of gloom. "This is one of his last rolls of the dice," a supportive senior figure confided. Another added, "He'll have to get out there and pretty quickly and like never before set out what he's all about and what he wants to do."
We're anticipating the Prime Minister addressing the weekly private meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) on Monday evening. While he's not currently expected to face the cameras, that could change. Remember, the PLP is his most crucial electorate right now. A Prime Minister who can't command the authority of their parliamentary party, as Starmer struggled to do last week, doesn't remain in office for long. Just ask Liz Truss – that was her undoing!
Another MP spoke of the "last chance saloon." Very few express this with any enjoyment; many have long genuinely wished for Starmer's success. "Getting rid of McSweeney has bought him time. But maybe only a week. Then loads of MPs will be jittery again," commented a critic, and indeed, many are already feeling jittery.
One MP mused on the arbitrary nature of luck and timing in politics. They wondered, what if the recent news about Lord Mandelson and the resulting crisis had occurred a fortnight earlier, and the news about the by-election in Gorton and Denton in Greater Manchester was only breaking now? In that scenario, would the Prime Minister have had the authority and political capital to prevent Andy Burnham from standing? Probably not, they surmised. And would Burnham's path to a leadership challenge have seemed clearer, given the jeopardy Starmer is now in? Undoubtedly. Instead, the Mayor of Greater Manchester's route to Westminster is currently blocked, as are, for now at least, his ambitions for higher office.
So, with Burnham out of the running, Angela Rayner's tax affairs still under scrutiny by HMRC, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting widely seen as a protégé of Lord Mandelson (even as Streeting himself has strongly criticized the peer), the situation is complex. As one keen observer of the Labour MPs' mood put it, "there is absolutely no consensus on what comes next."
And the Prime Minister can highlight that he secured a mandate from the electorate in the general election, something no successor would have. He's also built international alliances and relationships with world leaders, including US President Donald Trump. A significant part of Labour's appeal in the election was the promise of escaping the constant churn of Prime Ministers seen in the latter years of Conservative rule.
This is how we find ourselves in a "Mexican standoff situation," as one figure described it. "Stalemate might be the worst possible scenario," stated another, acknowledging that this is precisely what could transpire. And all of this is happening with the by-election in Gorton and Denton just over two weeks away, and a major set of devolved elections in Scotland and Wales, plus local elections across England, due in just a few months.
Are either, or both, of those upcoming electoral tests survivable for Starmer if the results are poor for Labour? "Starmer and Mandelson will be appearing on election leaflets, that's for sure. Just not ours," was the blunt assessment from one Labour MP.
So now, we wait to see how the coming days, weeks, and months unfold. Or perhaps even hours?
Prime Ministers must demonstrate they are in command of their government, and right now, there's recurring evidence suggesting that is not the case. Sir Keir Starmer is the sixth Prime Minister in the last decade. Were he to depart in the coming months, the UK would see its fifth Prime Minister in just four years. And that, astonishingly, is now a live possibility.
What do you think? Is this a turning point for Sir Keir Starmer, or just another bump in the road? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
