The world is on the brink of a potential nuclear arms race as the last nuclear pact between the United States and Russia, known as the New START Treaty, is set to expire on Thursday. This treaty, which has been in place for over half a century, has placed limits on the two largest atomic arsenals, preventing an unconstrained nuclear arms race. However, with its expiration, many fear the possibility of a dangerous three-way arms race involving the U.S., Russia, and China, which is also increasing its nuclear capabilities.
The termination of the New START Treaty could lead to a new Russia-U.S. arms race, fomenting global instability and increasing the risk of nuclear conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared his readiness to stick to the treaty's limits for another year if Washington follows suit, but President Donald Trump has been noncommittal about extending it. Trump has indicated a desire to keep limits on nuclear weapons and involve China in arms control talks, but Beijing has balked at any restrictions on its growing nuclear arsenal.
The Kremlin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, warned that without limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear stockpiles, the world would become more dangerous. Arms control advocates have long expressed concern about the expiration of New START, warning it could lead to a new Russia-U.S. arms race, foment global instability, and increase the risk of nuclear conflict. Pope Leo XIV also called for the treaty not to be abandoned without ensuring its continuation.
The New START Treaty, signed in 2010, restricted each side to no more than 1,550 nuclear warheads on no more than 700 missiles and bombers, deployed and ready for use. It was originally supposed to expire in 2021 but was extended for five more years. However, in February 2023, Putin suspended Russia's participation, citing the inability to allow U.S. inspections of its nuclear sites. The Kremlin emphasized it wasn't withdrawing from the pact altogether, but the expiration of the treaty could still have destabilizing effects.
The potential consequences of the New START Treaty's expiration are concerning. Without agreements limiting nuclear arsenals, Russia may take aggressive actions to restore parity, as mentioned by Medvedev. Trump's proposed Golden Dome missile defense system has also worried Russia and China, as it could lead to an arms race in offensive capabilities. Additionally, Trump's statement about resuming nuclear tests has troubled the Kremlin, as it could prompt Russia to respond in kind and tempt other nations to follow suit, further escalating the global nuclear competition.
